On March 27, behind closed doors at the Bihar Congress office on the banks of the Ganga in Patna, new state party in-charge Krishna Allavaru, legislature party leader Shakeel Ahmad Khan and state unit president Rajesh Kumar brainstormed strategy for the assembly elections later in the year. The informal meet generated excitement among cadres gathered on the front lawns, where statues of Mahatma Gandhi, Jawaharlal Nehru and B.R. Ambedkar stood.
The buzzword was change. Many gathered there said a new zeal had come with Allavaru, whose strategic understanding of politics set him apart from his predecessors.
Around 9pm, Khan emerged resolutely from the meeting. As several leaders flocked to him, he said softly: “Merely running around the party office is pointless; we should focus on groundwork in respective constituencies.”
The remark signalled that ticket distribution for the assembly polls would hinge heavily on performance and grassroots efforts, and not proximity to Delhi leaders.
The first step had been taken and it was in the right direction, quipped a state unit functionary.
The second reason driving optimism was that other party offices, like that of the Rashtriya Janata Dal and the ruling Janata Dal United were relatively less active about six months from polling day.
In the past few years, some tectonic shifts have taken place in Bihar, chief among them the “betrayal” of Nitish Kumar. The JD(U) president laid the foundation of the INDIA bloc before jumping over to the NDA to become chief minister. “His aim is to survive and rule, and for that he choses political partners carefully,” said Madan Mohan Jha, a political analyst based in Bihar. “If he thinks the INDIA bloc can help him remain in the saddle, he can even think of returning.”
Said RJD principal general secretary Abdul Bari Siddiqui: “It is better for Nitish to return to the opposition bloc he created. The BJP plans to use Nitish to grab his traditional economically backward class voter base, and then plans to appoint a chief minister from the saffron camp.”
However, to make the INDIA bloc a viable option for potential allies (as well as the existing ones), the Congress has to reinvent itself. For this, Allavaru said the first pursuit should be to make state unit organisations across the country more robust. He said the Congress would actively seek dialogue and drive efforts for improved coordination among its allies going forward. The effort is gaining pace, he said, adding, “Whether it is small or big steps, our immediate focus remains on strengthening the Congress itself.”
Outside Bihar, though, there is a growing sense among INDIA members that the bloc is struggling to create meaningful outcomes because of the lacklustre approach. Despite the Congress ruling three states and being the primary opposition in around a dozen, it has failed to send the message that it is serious and can keep the flock together.
The reason is apparently a lack of coordination between the Congress and partners such as the Samajwadi Party, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, the Trinamool Congress, the AAP, Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party and Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena. Several leaders told THE WEEK that there was “radio silence between the alliance partners”.
Alliances are always a second choice, especially for a national party like the Congress. As a political analyst explained, “If they start ceding electoral territories in states, how would they maintain the position of principal opposition party?”
Ashutosh Kumar, a political science professor at Panjab University, said the need for an alliance should be judged on its utility, and in the case of the INDIA bloc, the unifying factor is the way the BJP has been treating its rivals. “Alliances are formed and re-formed as per political necessity,” he said. And so, as long as the BJP is the decisive force, opposition parties will have little choice but to stick together despite the challenges.
In states where regional parties have a strong presence and are expected to retain power or topple the BJP unaided, the basic tendency would be not to pursue an alliance. This effectively dismisses the necessity of a team-up in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu (where the Congress is only a junior partner). And in Kerala, where it is the principal opposition party, an alliance with the left, its fierce rival in the state, seems impractical.
However, the INDIA bloc appears to have an advantage in the elections in these states to be held next year, potentially boosting the alliance’s momentum, if not that of the Congress individually.
“The INDIA bloc is not a power-sharing parliamentary pact,” said CPI(M) West Bengal secretary Mohammed Salim. “It is not a grand electoral alliance. It was a bloc created to take on the BJP. Sometimes they can fight together and sometimes against each other.”
One of the main challenges for the Congress lies in Assam, where despite apparent anti-incumbency, the party remains a divided house. The primary reason, said local functionaries, was the inability of the state leadership to create a grassroots cadre. “Another reason is the limited focus of the central leadership on the northeast,” said a Congress legislator from Assam.
Though the INDIA bloc prevented the BJP from getting majority on its own in the Lok Sabha elections, the jury is out on whether it has sustained the pro-people plank. This was reflected in the bloc’s, especially the Congress’s, losses in the state elections in Haryana, Maharashtra and Delhi.
These defeats also highlighted the way the BJP functions. A senior party leader explained how the BJP’s ground-level workers personally connect with people, calling them and visiting their homes for tea, discussing family matters, and then gradually steering the conversation towards politics. “They even show them videos and get their opinion on diverse issues, passionately advocating how nationalism, as envisioned by the BJP, is essential,” said the leader.
What also seems to have fuelled the BJP’s growth in states where it was once a bit player is the cracks in the INDIA bloc. The AAP’s solo run in Haryana cut into the Congress’s ambitions and the latter’s retaliatory move of going it alone in Delhi split the anti-BJP vote.
In Maharashtra, it was the faulty coordination between the Maha Vikas Aghadi partners that cost them the assembly elections. Interestingly, Sharad Pawar had warned a senior Congress leader―when he bumped into him at a Maharashtra airport―that the state Congress leadership’s disregard for allies would cost them dearly. The saffron alliance won big. As an NCP (Sharad Pawar) MP put it: “Pawar sahab would frequently say that we are failing to coordinate.”
A senior INDIA bloc MP, who was part of the coordination team during the Lok Sabha elections, said that much of the alliance’s time was spent resolving internal disputes on seat sharing rather than strategising against the BJP. The hard reality, said CPI Rajya Sabha member P. Santosh Kumar, was that joint action plans for so many political parties often do not work in practice. “This is happening not just in states, but also at the central level in coordinating on issues raised in Parliament,” he said. “The absence of frequent collective meetings and discussions is a serious concern for the INDIA bloc’s
effectiveness.”
Stronger together: Sonia Gandhi with Sharad Pawar and M.K. Stalin during an INDIA bloc meeting in December 2023 in Delhi | Getty Images
Experts argued that the INDIA bloc struggled because the opposition parties came together based on the philosophy that each party was on equal footing. “Then who will lead? Who will command?” asked political analyst Lokesh Somani. Most parties in the bloc accept these shortcomings passively. “To overcome such a conundrum, the Congress must emerge stronger and bigger organisationally,” he said. “So that it can automatically be seen as a natural leader.”
The INDIA bloc can only reclaim lost ground by setting personal ambitions aside and uniting under a common strategy, said political analyst Aditya Rathi. “They must field a single candidate against the BJP in states where the BJP is a solid front,” he said. “Lessons from Haryana and Delhi show that fragmentation only helps the BJP.”
A state-level model of success was the victory in the Jharkhand assembly elections, where the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha led things from strategy to campaigning. The party was directly in touch with the Congress central leadership during the elections, said JMM general secretary Supriyo Bhattacharya. This, he said, did not leave much room for the Congress state leadership to interfere. “The cadre strength of the Congress in Jharkhand is very poor, so we took the reins and helped them wherever we could,” he said.
During multiple meetings to strategise for the assembly elections, sources said JMM chairman Hemant Soren largely dictated terms, informing the Congress high command of his decisions.
This has apparently become a problem in other state units as well, where the local leadership is not able to assert the Congress’s authority proportionately within alliances. But there is a flip side, too. For instance, in Uttar Pradesh, the Congress’s state leadership overestimated its strength in the run-up to the Lok Sabha elections last year. A Samajwadi Party leader said that the Congress’s state leadership demanded 40 of 80 seats. “It was only after [Congress president] Mallikarjun Kharge intervened and spoke to [Samajwadi Party president] Akhilesh Yadav that the issue was resolved,” he said.
At the same time, the Congress’s multiple power centres have left its rank and file confused, undermining its bargaining power and credibility within alliances. “The Congress appears too vast to be controlled,” said a senior Congress leader. “Its organisation is too dispersed to be effectively managed, and some of its leaders prefer an independent approach to a cohesive one. The same problem seems to plague the state leadership at some level.”
As the gradual transition from Sonia to Rahul Gandhi has taken place, the influence of the old guard has notably diminished. Stalwarts like Ashok Gehlot, Kamal Nath and Digvijaya Singh are making way for new faces. A senior party leader is learnt to have cautioned the top brass against the party becoming a “group of individual aspirants instead of a cohesive national organisation”.
At the heart of the Congress’s decline is also a misplaced sense of security―the belief that as the party has a nationwide presence and an intellectual base, there is no pressing need to build a strong cadre. To assume that when people do vote for change, they will vote for the Congress, the same way they did in the 1980s and the 1990s, would be wrong, cautioned an insider. Believing that public sentiment alone would be enough to unseat the BJP might not prove beneficial in the long run, admitted state leaders.
Elections, said observers, were won not just through legacy and ideology, but through meticulous groundwork. “More so when the ruling camp (BJP) leaves no stone unturned to win the elections,” said an expert.
What also plays an important role is consolidation of votes and the ability to attract swing voters, which only comes with an active, dedicated cadre―something the Congress has long neglected.
Common interests: Mallikarjun Kharge with Akhilesh Yadav | Getty Images
What the party has focused on recently is substantial organisational rejigs in multiple states. Several in-charges and state unit presidents have been replaced, which has sent out a strong message. Sasikanth Senthil, chairman of the Congress’s central war-room, said attempts were being made to engage workers and there was also a push towards leader-worker joint efforts. But more needs to be done. “Our strength has always been our village committees,” he said. “Reviving those structures and engaging with them actively is something that has already started.”
The reinvention model, at the moment, hinges on empowering district presidents to implement their recommendations. According to party insiders, the Congress is taking a leaf out of the DMK’s organisational rules, where Chief Minister M.K. Stalin seeks recommendations from district party chiefs. However, what the Congress has failed to learn from the Stalin model is how to boldly bring up issues that invoke regional sentiments yet have a pan-India impact. For example, said political observers, the Congress has not been able to raise the delimitation issue and join the DMK as it fears that it will shed its support base in north India.
Political expert Rasheed Kidwai pointed at problems at the structural level with the Congress. “Then there is a question of hierarchy within the party, which also doesn’t seem to be helping the party reach its potential.”
Focusing on taking small steps, the Congress is planning to create a committee to take feedback of district presidents who can play a bigger role in the central election committee. Avinash Pande, general secretary in-charge of the largest state, Uttar Pradesh, said special committees were being set up to assess and advise on making district units stronger.
So, can the Congress lead the INDIA bloc and reinvent itself, or will Bihar be just another chapter in the book of missed opportunities?
Allavaru said the answer lay in how well and how soon the Congress was able to stitch an alliance with the RJD. “The alliance needs a clear, well-defined plan that isn’t left till the last minute,” he said. “We must speak in one voice, maintaining unity and consistency.” While this means close coordination, early seat sharing and candidate selection, what is also important is a coordinated campaign on people’s issues for maximum impact beyond the banks of the Ganga.